'The inflection point that really happened in the sector was during the pandemic when buyers' perception changed towards consumption and that gave a trigger to pent-up demand with the increased affordability.'
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent and decided to continue with its accommodative stance despite rising inflation. This is the 11th time in a row that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das has maintained the status quo. RBI had last revised its policy repo rate or the short-term lending rate on May 22, 2020 in an off-policy cycle to perk up demand by cutting the interest rate to a historic low.
Following are the highlights of the RBI's first monetary policy statement of 2022-23 unveiled by Governor Shaktikanta Das: Policy repo rate unchanged at 4%; marginal standing facility rate & bank rate too remain unchanged at 4.25%. Monetary stance to be accommodative with focus on withdrawal of accommodation to keep inflation within target. GDP growth projection for FY'23 slashed to 7.2% from 7.8%; growth projections based on assumption of crude oil (Indian basket) price at $100 a barrel during FY'23. Inflation forecast hiked to 5.7% for FY'23 from 4.5%.
The relationship between the US and India has been very productive, in particular on the trade and technology front, and 2023 can be considered the best year historically for bilateral ties, according to a former top American trade official. Arun Kumar, an Indian-American, who served as the assistant secretary of Commerce for Global Markets and director general of the US and Foreign Commercial Service (USFCS) during the Obama administration, said this during an interview with PTI in Washington. "Looking back on 2023, it was a very productive year for the US-India relationship, by many accounts the best year historically," he said.
The Congress has been accusing the government of distracting people with other issues to hide its failures and issues of price rise and unemployment.
Equity benchmark Sensex declined over 215 points on Wednesday, weighed by losses in index heavyweight Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finserv and Tata Steel, after the Reserve Bank raised the key interest rate by 35 basis points. Subdued Asian markets and continued selling by foreign investors also weighed on sentiment, traders said. Extending its losses for the fourth straight session, the 30-share BSE Sensex ended 215.68 points or 0.34 per cent lower at 62,410.68.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) has kept its outlook for India's economic growth unchanged at 7 per cent for the current fiscal year while forecasting a weaker-than-previously expected pace for developing Asia. ADB's 7 per cent growth projection for fiscal 2022-23 (April 2022 to March 2023), unchanged from its September forecast, compares to 8.7 per cent GDP growth in 2021-22. For 2023-24, the GDP growth has been kept unchanged at 7.2 per cent.
With Onam and Raksha Bandhan just around the corner, the festival season is ready to kick off in full swing. As people embrace the celebratory spirit, companies anticipate a surge in sales this year. Consumer durables firms are expecting strong growth of 40-50 per cent in the premium segment during the upcoming season. Appliance makers also foresee increased demand for cooling appliances - refrigerators and air conditioners - which were impacted by unseasonal rainfall.
Indian economy is poised to do better on the back of reforms undertaken by the government and is expected to clock a 6.5-7 per cent growth in the remaining part of the decade, Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said on Tuesday. Addressing reporters here after the tabling of the Economic Survey in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, Nageswaran said that by and large, inflation is likely to be "well behaved" in FY2023-24 barring headwinds. "My optimism is that in the coming decade, rest of the decade, the potential GDP growth, without taking into account export potential, because global economy is still rife with uncertainty, the growth rate would be around 6.5 to 7 per cent, rather than between 6 per cent and 6.5 per cent," he said.
In its report, 'Global Economic Outlook: December 2011', the agency said the Indian economy is likely to regain the 8 per cent economic growth trajectory only in 2013-14.
Whether it was the MGNREGS or the NFSA or the Aadhaar-based DBT scheme for cash transfer, the Modi government has built on the basic architecture created by the Singh government. Policy makers in the Modi government, instead of discarding them as products of the previous political regime, worked on them, expanded their scope and reach, and used new tools to improve their performance, explains A K Bhattacharya.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday affirmed India's rating at the lowest investment grade of 'Baa3', with a stable outlook, saying high growth will support a gradual increase in income levels, but flagged risks of populist policies due to rise in political tensions. Moody's said although India's potential growth has come down in the past 7-10 years, the growth would outpace all other G20 economies through at least the next two years, driven by domestic demand. Moody's said the restoration of robust growth prospects post-pandemic, the effective commitment to inflation targeting and the rehabilitation of the financial system aided by reform supports its view of strengthening monetary and macro policy effectiveness.
Elaborating on the reasons behind the expected slowdown in the country's economic growth, the multilateral lending agency said it 'stems from a moderation in domestic demand, as elevated inflationary pressures have cut into disposable incomes and household spending'.
The company's decision may impact new projects, which are likely to get delayed, said sources in the know. Among the IT players that work with Macy's are Accenture, Cognizant, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), and Infosys. Macy's is among the top 5-10 clients of these companies.
India, along with Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, is expected to sustain growth in the medium-term in Asia region, replacing China as the key growth driver, Morgan Stanley and Nomura said in two separate reports released on Monday. While Morgan Stanley projected a 6.2 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for India in FY24, Nomura estimated the Indian economy to grow at 5.9 per cent in 2023. "Even with a slowing China, we expect GDP growth in Asia to sustainably outperform other emerging markets and the US. India and Southeast Asia are set to be the fastest-growing economies this decade.
The budget-making exercise offers golden opportunities despite challenges, observes Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
Manufacturing activities in India remained robust and price pressures were contained in October as new orders and production rose at a slower but stronger pace, according to a monthly survey released on Tuesday. The seasonally-adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was up from 55.1 in September to 55.3 in October. The October PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 16th straight month.
However, some analysts say RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan may delay the rate cuts amid mounting concerns over the government's fiscal health.
Senior citizens and others depending upon income from bank fixed deposit (FD) schemes will be at the receiving end with the retail inflation exceeding the interest rates. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its latest monetary policy review has projected retail inflation at 5.3 per cent for the current financial year. Last week, the RBI said that the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation is now projected to be at 5.3 per cent for 2021-22 with risks evenly balanced.
India has put curbs on wheat exports through the government route, starting November last year. This comes amid a surge in domestic prices of the cereal. In December, India exported 391 tonnes of wheat to Bangladesh and Bhutan. In November 2022, it had exported 375 tonnes of wheat only to Bhutan.
Raghuram Rajan, who has been pilloried by his critics for keeping interest rates high and has also been accused of stifling growth.
A powerful PM is only helping the mighty, Owaisi said.
The finance ministry will kick-start the exercise to prepare the annual Budget for 2023-24 from October 10, in the backdrop of revival of the Indian economy and fears of recession in developed countries. The budget for the next year will have to address critical issues of high inflation, job creation, boosting demand, and putting the economy on a sustained 8 per cent-plus growth path. On Wednesday, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said inflation is no longer "red-lettered" and the priority for the government now is job creation and boosting growth.
'Returns can be very variable in equity markets.' 'That is why I tell small investors don't put 100 per cent of your money in equities, even if you are young.'
India is well positioned to continue to be the fastest-growing major economy next year, which may mark the lowest global growth since the millennium began barring the pandemic and the global financial crisis, according to Tata Sons chairman N Chandrasekaran. In his New Year message to around 9.35 lakh employees of the Tata Group, he said increasing consumption, consumer confidence and investment will support India's growth story although the global environment has several risk factors, including the energy crisis in Europe, the battle to contain inflation to avoid recession, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. "Post-pandemic, India opened up, and we have returned to living our daily lives normally, in a year that saw the nation turn 75 years old.
The RBI said there is an upward bias on inflation projection.
India has been relatively insulated from the severe headwinds in the West. However, with a third of the global economy expected to slip into recession in calendar year 2023, the impact will strongly be felt on India's exports and trade economy, leading economists said in a panel discussion at the Business Standard BFSI Insight Summit in Mumbai on Wednesday. The panel comprised former Reserve Bank of India executive director and former Monetary Policy Committee member Mridul Saggar, State Bank of India Chief Economic Advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Citibank India Chief Economist Samiran Chakraborty, ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar, and IndusInd Bank Chief Economist Gaurav Kapoor. The topic of the panel discussion was No recession in sight: Is India decoupled from developed economies?
Days after the US Fed raised the interest rate, the RBI may go in for its third consecutive policy rate hike by at least 35 basis points to check high retail inflation, experts said. The central bank has already announced to gradually withdraw its accommodative monetary policy stance. The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel -- the Monetary Policy Committee -- will meet for three days from August 3 to deliberate on the prevailing economic situation and announce its bi-monthly review on Friday.
'BJP has lot of money. Even a rich person like me is scared of taking on the financial muscle of the BJP.' 'What is the point of throwing money? Result toh aane wala nahi hai.'
'Those who want stability in life have started looking at opportunities outside of the start-up ecosystem.'
India's economy grew 6.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022-23, pushing up the annual growth rate to 7.2 per cent, official data showed on Wednesday.
Moody's on Thursday slashed India's growth estimate for the current year to 9.1 per cent, from 9.5 per cent earlier, saying high fuel and fertilizer import bill could limit the government's capital expenditure. In its 'Global Macro Outlook 2022-23 (March 2022 Update): Economic Growth will suffer as fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine builds' report, the rating agency said Russia's invasion of Ukraine has significantly altered the global economic backdrop through three main channels -- spike in commodities prices, risks to global economy from financial and business disruption and dent in sentiment due to heightened geopolitical risks. It said Russia is the only G-20 economy that will contract this year and forecast that its economy will shrink 7 per cent in 2022, and 3 per cent in 2023, down from projected growth of 2 per cent and 1.5 per cent respectively, before the invasion of Ukraine.
The economic growth may have slowed to 3.5 per cent in fourth quarter of 2021-22 from 5.4 per cent in the previous three-month period due to the impact of higher commodity prices on margins, decline in wheat yields and on higher base, Icra Ratings said on Monday. The agency said the hiccups in the recovery of the contact-intensive services attributable to the third wave of Covid-19 in the country may have also affected the economic growth in the quarter. Even the gross value added (GVA) at basic prices (at constant 2011-12 prices) in Q4 FY2022 seems to have eased to 2.7 per cent from 4.7 per cent in Q3 FY2022, it said.
The central bank tweaked the retail inflation range to 4.8-4.9 per cent in the first half of 2018-19, and 4.7 per cent in the second half.
The panel, headed by former RBI governor C Rangarajan, in its economic outlook for 2007-08 also projected inflation to remain within 4 per cent.
With inflation remaining at elevated levels, central banks around the world, including the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), will kill excess demand in economy over the next six to eight months, sources in the know said. They also indicated that there could be a rate hike in June, when the inflation forecast for the current financial year would be raised. The RBI, the sources said, might announce more steps such as raising the limit on held-to-maturity (HTM) bonds to support government borrowings but might not come out with any further quantitative easing GSAP (Government Securities Acquisition Programme) measures.
False and acrimonious debates such as Modi versus Manmohan might allow for victories that are political and partisan. But the real loser is the nation, India and Bharat, notes Arvind Subramanian, former chief economic advisor to the Modi government in its first term.
The minister tells Subhomoy Bhattacharjee that he wants to set up a financing corporation for the road and shipping sectors, which will throw up a business opportunity of Rs 25 lakh crore!
Projecting 6-7 per cent growth this fiscal, government on Monday ruled out further duty cuts and favoured 'benign' interest rates to ensure that the measures to contain inflation did not hamper growth.
Around 58 per cent of developers expect housing prices to increase this year because of rise in input costs, while 32 per cent builders feel it will remain stable, according to a survey. According to the 'Real Estate Developers Sentiment Survey', by Realtors apex body CREDAI, real estate consultant Colliers India and property research firm Liases Foras, 43 per cent of developers expect residential demand to remain stable in 2023, while 31 per cent feel the demand would increase up to 25 per cent. As many as 341 real estate developers from various parts of the country participated in the joint survey conducted during the last two months.
